태풍에 따른 기상요소와 사과의 낙과 피해율 분석

Abstract

Every year, direct and indirect damage to farms caused by natural disasters continues to occur. In particular, damage caused by typhoons appears to cause great damage. This study aims to identify and analyze the relationship between weather factors and damage rate in the event of a typhoon by utilizing the weather information provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration and the damage caused by crop accident insurance. Since the damage rate is proportional data with values between 0 and 1, it is not suitable to utilize standard statistical techniques that assume that the error term follows a normal distribution and has a constant variance. Therefore the analysis is conducted through the binomial regression and the beta regression model. As a result the adjusted R square of the beta regression model was higher than that of the binary regression model. And the minimum air pressure, maximum wind speed, and maximum humidity variables were significant among the weather variables. Through this analysis of the damage rate, it is expected that damage to farms can be reduced by preparing appropriate countermeasures in the event of a typhoon.