РОССИЙСКИЙ ЭКСПОРТ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВИЯ: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ

Abstract

An analysis of the dynamics of export-import food flows of the Russian Federa-tion since the introduction of the food embargo against Western countries has been carried out. It was established that as a result of the imple-mentation of the concept of import substitution in the food sector for the period from 2014 to 2018, the domestic agricultural sector managed to reduce the gap between import and export from 107.5 to 19.1%, which led to the loss of a significant volume of the Russian food market by Western agricultural producers, and the Russian agro-industrial sector 46% growth over 5 years. The duality of food trade restrictions is shown, along with the growth of the economic potential of Russian agriculture, a number of negative fac-tors were noted, primarily an increase in domestic food prices, as well as a decrease in the economic availability of food for the population. By apply-ing the method of paired correlation analysis, the main correlation relationships of Russian food exports were identified, primarily from the total level of agricultural production, the value of population expenditures on the purchase of food products on the domestic food market, the balanced financial result of economic activity in the agro-industrial complex, the introduction of organic fertilizers for crops, the provision of agri-cultural equipment, the use of irrigation systems, as well as the development of energy capacities. It has been established that such an indicator as government spending to support the agro-indus-trial complex has only an indirect effect on Rus-sian food exports, which indicates the preferential spending of financial resources allocated by the government of the Russian Federation to sup-port the national agro-industrial complex, not in the interests of export-oriented companies, but to solve the current and seasonal problems of ag-ricultural producers. The use of the forecast ex-trapolation method made it possible to determine the parameters for the functioning of the Russian agricultural sector, in which Russian food exports will reach $45 billion. The USA by 2030, which can serve as a reference and be used by govern-ment bodies as target indicators, the achievement of which will contribute to solving the tasks set by the President of Russia to the national agro-industrial complex.