Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the cycle variation of housing sales price in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon and the factors that influence them. For the purpose, the apartment sales price index, rent price index, 3-year corporate bond interest rate, currency volume, and consumer price index data from November 2003 to July 2020 were used to analyze HP filter and Bayesian VAR model. As a result of the analysis, the housing sales price were 4 cycle variations in Seoul and Gyeonggi and 3 cycle variations in Incheon. In Seoul, the expansion period lasted longer than the contraction period, but the contraction period was longer in Gyeonggi and Incheon. In addition, it was found that the rent price index, corporate bond yield, and currency volume had a significant influence on the cycle variation of housing sales price, and there were differences in influence factors by region. This suggests that the government's real estate policy needs to be subdivided and established by region rather than a consistent regulatory-oriented policy.
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