Модель управления процессом социохозяйственного освоения пойменных территорий

Abstract

The paper presents a mathematical model for managing the process of floodplain socio-economic development, which includes not only a game-theoretic, but also a scenario simulation and a geoinformation models. The main characteristic of the controlled system is a map of the average annual maximum flooding during spring floods. The map is calculated using a softwaremathematical complex for geoinformation and hydrodynamic modeling of surface water dynamics. With the help of game-theoretic modeling tools we analysed an uncontrolled and a controlled processes of buying and selling floodplain territories within the framework of asymmetric awareness using the mechanism of penalties. The paper includes an analytical representation of a Γ1 guaranteeing equilibrium for the simplest functions. The approach, described in the paper, is used to assess the effectiveness of managing the socio-economic development process of the northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain. We conducted a numerical search of game-theoretic models equilibria using constructed objective functions of players. The objective functions are based on geoinformation and hydrodynamic modeling. We also analysed the equilibria dependences on model parameters. The simulation model includes a numerical construction of the dependences of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain ecological state assessment on the selling strategies. The paper shows that the level growth of the environmental imperative of society reduces the negative effect of a seller’s use of an aggressive socio-economic development strategy. On the other hand, the slow stabilization of the socioeconomic development process with high solvent demand is due to the available territory exhaustion and the decline in the quality of life with the floodplain ecosystem degradation.