Инструментарий для моделирования динамики капитала финансовых организаций

Abstract

The issues of ensuring the financial stability of financial institutions, which is understood as the sufficiency of assets to meet obligations, are of paramount importance both for clients and the management of a financial institution, and for the country's economy as a whole. Most often, the inability to fulfill obligations is associated with a lack of funds, therefore it is important to monitor the dynamics of the monetary capital of organizations, to assess their financial risks, including in the conditions of investment. Purpose of the study: development of tools for assessing the risks of financial organizations. Statement of the problem: to develop a simulation model that allows one to study the dynamics of the capital of an organization, whose financial resources are formed due to heterogeneous flows of inflow and outflow of funds and investment, including in risky assets, in an inflationary environment. The paper proposes a modeling algorithm that allows to collect a descriptive statistics on the distribution of financial resources, to estimate the dynamics of the money capital of financial organizations and investigate the "sufficiency" of the company's funds to meet financial obligations basing on data of cash flows for various types of contracts and returns (growth rates) of assets, presented in the form of statistical data and/or characteristics of time series models. The description of the software tool is given. A computational experiment was based on data of the inflow and outflow of funds of a non-state pension Fund under the program of non-state pension provision. Descriptive statistics are given for the distributions of the size of organization's funds constructed as a result of modeling. The probability of organization’s downfall in dynamics and the risk of entering the zone of financial insecurity are assessed. The proposed tools have scientific novelty in the field of designing simulation models and decision support systems for analyzing the activities of financial organizations and determining effective directions for their development.