주택담보대출 원리금 부담가능구간 추정 및 시뮬레이션 연구*

Abstract

The burden of households’ mortgage payment will continue to rise, considering the recent increase in household debt and the possibility of interest rate rise. The purpose of the study is to estimate the acceptable range of mortgage payment using the Price Sensitive Measurement (PSM) and to simulate the size of households that are burdened by mortgage payment as interest rates change. To apply PSM to mortgage payment, a survey was carried out and interest rates simulation was performed to identify future risks. The results of analysis and their implications are as follows. First, as a result of PSM analysis, it was found that all regions showed the same acceptable range of mortgage payment, but different reasonable payment levels. In particular, local metropolitan cities showed moderate payment levels and high sensitivity. Second, there were more households feeling burdened by the repayment of the principal and interest in the Seoul Capital Area than local metropolitan cities. Third, the simulation showed that a further 3%p increase in interest rates would lead to a significant increase in overburdened households. Although this study has limitations in the scope and scale of spatial coverage, it is meaningful in that it empirically analyzes the acceptable range of mortgage payment and the possible interest payment risk.