Бюджетная устойчивость и динамика экономического развития регионов

Abstract

The paper is devoted to some aspects of regional budget sustainability. The analysis is based on data of revenues of regional budgets of the Far-Eastern federal district. Under the review of approaches to analyzing of budget sustainability we found significant variety of definitions and methods of budget sustainability estimation. The consequence of this diversity is a mismatch of results of scientific researches. We calculated the coefficient of elasticity of tax and non-tax revenues by gross regional product in order to assess the level revenues sensitivity to changes in economic situation. Then we analyzed the dynamics of budget revenues and estimated the scale of fluctuation. The analysis showed that the budget revenues of the territories of the Far-Eastern federal district are mostly characterized by the low level of sensitivity to national trends in the economic development. The degree of their sensitivity to changes in the economic situation in the region is evaluated as high for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Kamchatka territory and the Sakhalin region. These regions differ significantly in the share of intergovernmental transfers in the income structure, which confirms the absence of direct link between the dependence of the budget on the budget regulation measures and the sensitivity of its revenues to changes in the economic situation. According to the second criterion, the highest risk of reducing sustainability is typical for the Sakhalin region and the Chukotka autonomous region. We share the opinion that complex economic development remains the most important measure for providing of budget sustainability. The results of the study can be used in the educational sphere and become a basis of further investigation devoted to the budget sustainability.