МЕТОДЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ МОЩНОСТИ ВЕТРА ДЛЯ ШЕЛЬФОВЫХ ВЕТРОЭЛЕКТРОСТАНЦИЙ

Abstract

Relevance Wind energy forecasting is an opportunity to evaluate the production possibilities of a wind farm in the short term. Production often refers to the available capacity of the wind farm in question. For example, to date, the installed wind power in Russia has reached 20 GW. Direct transmission operators use existing tools to forecast wind production up to 48 hours. Forecasting tools help optimize power system management. This article discusses the abundance of relevant forecasting methods in the field of wind energy, evaluates their effectiveness and value for the most effective control of wind energy. Particular attention is paid to the ongoing development of wind energy forecasting models to meet the specifics of shelf. Aim of research Conduct a comparative analysis of existing forecasting methods in the field of wind energy under general given conditions, choose the best method for a particular case. Research methods To solve the problem, the authors conducted a comparative analysis of the popular, currently existing methods for forecasting wind farms, comparing their applicability with the specification of the area of use. Results In the course of the study, modern wind energy forecasting tools were analyzed, a comparative analysis was carried out, and conclusions were drawn about the applicability of each of the methods. Keywords: wind energy, short-term forecasting, shelf, optimization, efficiency, model, tool, control, mathematical model, forecast error level