Від темпоральних даних до динамічних каузальних моделей

Abstract

We present a brief review of dynamic causal model inference from data. A vector autoregressive models is of our prime interest. The architecture, representation and schemes of measurement of temporal data and time series data are outlined. We argue that require- ment to data characteristics should come from the nature of dynamic process at hand and goals of model inference. To describe and evaluate temporal data one may use terms of longitude, measurement frequency etc. Data measurement frequency is crucial factor in order to an inferred model be adequate. Data longitude and observation session duration may be expressed via several temporal horizons, such as closest horizon, 2-step horizon, influence attainability horizon, oscillatory horizon, and evolutionary horizon. To justify a dynamic causal model inference from data, analyst needs to assume the dynamic process is stationary or at least obeys structural regularity. The main specificity of task of dynamic causal model inference is known temporal order of variables and certain structural regularity. If maximal lag of influence is unknown, inference of dynamic causal model faces additional problems. We examine the Granger’s causality concept and outline its deficiency in real circumstances. It is argued that Granger causality is incorrect as practical tool of causal discovery. In contrast, certain rules of edge orientation (included in known constraint-based algorithms of model inference) can reveal unconfounded causal relationship.