Abstract
The problem of the sustainability of the political system is one of the most pressing issues in Political Science. The wave of social and political upheavals that took place in the 21st century in various countries requires studying the factors that determine the ability of modern political systems to maintain their essential features in case of undesirable conditions. Today it is already obvious that the sustainability of the political system, mechanisms and principles of its functioning depends not only and, perhaps, not as much on the socio-economic sphere, the development of democratic institutions or the presence/absence of a destructive external influence, as it is often assumed. Rather, intra-systemic characteristics play a key role. The multidimensionality of the manifestation and the multifactorial nature of the formation of stable political systems not only determine the possibility of a huge number of definitions of sustainability, but also give rise to considerable difficulties in measuring it. The authors analyze the political system of Kazakhstan using the sustainability index that they developed earlier. The study shows that throughout most of the post-Soviet history of the country, the level of the sustainability of its political system was above average, and now Kazakhstan already surpasses Russia and Ukraine in this parameter and is approaching Belarus. Moreover, if the existing trends continue, the sustainability of the political system of Kazakhstan in the short term will only increase. According to the authors’ conclusion, this trend is hard to reverse unless there is a force majeure in the global economy or new military and political threats emerge, which the republic will not be able to tackle without resorting to the help of allies.
Highlights
The wave of social and political upheavals that took place in the 21st century in various countries requires studying the factors that determine the ability of modern political systems to maintain their essential features in case of undesirable conditions
Today it is already obvious that the sustainability of the political system, mechanisms and principles of its functioning depends and, perhaps, not as much on the socio-economic sphere, the development of democratic institutions or the presence/absence of a destructive external influence, as it is often assumed
Semchenkov — Doctor of Political Science; Professor at the History Department, Russian University of Transport
Summary
Проблема устойчивости политической системы относится к числу наиболее актуальных для политической науки. Что устойчивость политической системы, механизмов и принципов ее функционирования зависит не только и, быть может, не столько от состояния социально-экономической сферы, развитости демократических институтов или наличия/отсутствия деструктивного внешнего воздействия, как это зачастую утверждается. Многоаспектность проявления и многофакторность формирования устойчивых политических систем не просто обусловливают возможность огромного числа дефиниций устойчивости, но и порождают немалые трудности по ее измерению. Помешать этому могут только форс-мажорные обстоятельства в мировой экономике и появление новых военных и политических угроз, с которыми республика окажется не в состоянии справиться, не прибегая к помощи союзников. Ключевые слова: Казахстан, политическая система, устойчивость, стабильность, индекс устойчивости политической системы. Данные обстоятельства делают весьма востребованным исследование особенностей функционирования политической системы Казахстана в постсоветский период, оценки ее устойчивости и перспектив дальнейшей эволюции
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