Abstract

The number of saigas in Kazakhstan's Ural group, which inhabits the Volga-Ural interfluve, increased to a record 801,000 in 2022. Local farmers claim that these animals severely devastate agricultural fields and pas-tures and demand artificial reduction of the population. At the same time, nature conservation organizations suggest their further protection. In this study, we analyzed the literature and our own results on the dynamics of saiga numbers and their spring mass mortality in conjunction with changes in the natural and climatic conditions of the region. Industrial shooting of saigas, the Ural saiga group, began in 1954 and continued intermittently until 1994. In other words, saiga hunting was a routine regulatory activity at that time. Then there was a long-term period of depression in their numbers, which was attributed to excessive shooting and poaching. It has been shown that the wave-like dynamics of saiga population numbers depends entirely on the productivity of the grass stand and the watering of their habitat. A deep and prolonged depression in the number of animals in the 2000s resulted from a severe reduction in watering places, as during this period, due to a 14-year absence of surface runoff of spring meltwater into the local hydrographic network, ponds and sorrows dried up everywhere and lakes and rivers shallowed. It was only in 2010-2011 that new recharge of open reservoirs with melt water began, and since then they have never dried out until 2022. It was at that time that the saiga population began to increase rapidly. The reasons for the periodic mass selective spring mortality of saigas were analyzed. It is shown that this phenomenon could be caused by a noncontagious disease, timpania, which is identified by the rapidity of the disease, which explains its selective nature (mainly sedentary females giving birth perish). Timpania, apparently, could serve as a trigger mechanism for triggering other secondary diseases in animals, including contagious pasteurellosis, which is constantly registered in dead animals. The number of animals after the mass saiga mass mortality in spring recovers in a few years to the previous level due to high fecundity, both in periods of depression and high numbers. Therefore, there is no reason to cancel the industrial shooting of such a valuable self-renewable resource, taking into account the dynamics of its abundance under the influence of natural and climatic condition.

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