산불의 공간적 확산이 농촌지역경제에 미치는 영향 분석

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate regional economic effects of spatial diffusion of wildfire using Cobb-Douglas production function of agriculture and forestry. The analysis is applied to Gangwon and Gyeongbuk provinces where are the most damaged of wildfire in Korea. The damaged areas are derived from multiplied by the occurrence probability of wildfire and diffusion areas of wildfire for micro-spatial unit level with ArcGIS techniques. The models of wildfire provides that the spatial diffusion of wildfire increases with the rising of highest temperature and average wind speed. Through the production function, value added of Agriculture and Forest sectors get damaged where the Cos-converted slope aspect of mountains are toward the South. The production model provides reductions of regional value added by increasing damaged areas of wildfire. It reveals that the most damaged region is Andong city in Gyeongbuk province, where value added loss is 1.25 billion Won, which is about 0.72% of total value added in agriculture and forestry of the city. As a view of policy makers, it needs to be considered to establish prevention policies against wildfires because regional economic losses from wildfire are depending on geographical conditions and performances of the major industry related to wildfire's diffusion such as agriculture or tourism sector according to the result of analysis.