Abstract
본 논문에서는 마르코프 연쇄로 모형을 이용하여 한국프로야구의 경기결과를 예측하고 분석하였다. 타자의 타격결과와 주자상태를 나타내는 확률과정을 구체적으로 정의하여 경기진행 상황을 동적으로 반영한 프로야구 경기를 마르코프 연쇄를 구성하여 실제 데이터를 바탕으로 주자 상태를 고려한 진루행렬과 각 선수별 타격 확률을 구하여 경기당 득점 분포와 타석에 서는 타자 수의 분포를 구하였다. We use a Markov chain model to analyze the Korean Baseball League. We derive the distributions of the number of runs scored and the number of batters that complete their turn at bat in a baseball game using the time inhomogeneous Markov chain. The model is tested with real data produced from the 2011 Korean Baseball League.
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