МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЗМІН У СЕКТОРАЛЬНІЙ СТРУКТУРІ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

Theoretical and practical aspects of structural changes in the economy are the subject of scientific research by a large number of both foreign and domestic scientists. The theory of three sectors became a new methodological approach to the analysis of the structure of the economy. The process of modeling changes in the sectoral structure of the economy makes it possible to create such conditions that would facilitate Ukraine’s transition to an innovative model of development. The article simulates changes in the sectoral structure of the economy on the basis of the Cobb-Douglas production function. It is emphasized that changes in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of Ukraine’s economy should ensure the formation of an innovative model of its development. The evolution of the interpretation of the concept of «Solow balance» is highlighted. It is substantiated that the «Solow balance» contains an innovative component, so it is advisable to take it into account in the process of modeling changes in the sectoral structure. The «Solow balance» is calculated on the basis of initial data on the value of fixed assets, the number of employed population and the amount of value added in terms of primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the Ukrainian economy. The relationship between the level of the indicator in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy is considered. It has been proven that the primary sector of the economy is the starting point for sustainable economic growth, as it is the basis of the supply chain for the secondary sector, and also acts as an intermediate consumer of services in the tertiary sector. At the same time, changes in the «Solow balance» in one sector of the economy will provide a gradual change in the relevant indicators for other sectors not simultaneously, but over a period of time. Given that the «Solow balance» contains an innovative component, its increase involves the use of drivers of innovative development, which launch and intensify the processes of knowledge accumulation, innovation and their commercialization. Based on the developed model, it is substantiated that the increase of the «Solow balance» in the target sector is possible due to the increase in the share of intermediate consumption of services-drivers of innovative development.