Abstract
The article considers the methodology of cartographic study of geopolitical risks in the border region of the Black Sea region—Crimea. Geopolitical risks are presented as one of the options for potential constraints on the sustainable development of Crimea. Geopolitical risk refers to the situation of uncertainty that arises in the region in the process of changing its political subjectivity. The program of a cartographic study of geopolitical risks in the region was proposed. It includes stages of exploration and mapping long-term dynamics of their manifestation in the region; identification of cause-and-effect relationships and mutual conditionality of factors of occurrence of geopolitical risks; forecast of socio-economic development and geopolitical risks in Crimea for the near and distant future; justification of the strategy of socio-cultural development of the Crimean region and preventive actions in the system of management of geopolitical situations. The results of the first stage of the study of geopolitical risks in Crimea are presented. A map of the dynamics of ethnic and confessional contradictions in Crimea in the period 1990–2015 is developed. An understanding of the contradiction as a stage of pre-conflict with the potential for peaceful resolution, but not overcome in content, is proposed. The localization of ethnic and confessional contradictions in the Crimea is analyzed. The regions and spatial foci of their concentration are determined. The emergence of ethnic and confessional contradictions in regions with increased ethnic mosaic is proved. A map of the geopolitical risks in Crimea that emerged after 2014 has been developed. The transformation of the types of geopolitical risks in Crimea is analyzed. It is noted that the possibility of the emergence of ethnopolitical contradictions and their addition to the risks of information manipulation of information about the region in the media, as well as the emergence of risks of terrorist activities on the territory of Crimea. The conclusion is made about the spatial asymmetry of the localization of geopolitical risks in Crimea. A significant part of the geopolitical risks is localized in those regions of the peninsula that concentrate the economic and informational attractiveness.
Highlights
The conclusion is made about the spatial asymmetry of the localization of geopolitical risks in Crimea
The article considers the methodology of cartographic study of geopolitical risks
Geopolitical risk refers to the situation of uncertainty
Summary
The conclusion is made about the spatial asymmetry of the localization of geopolitical risks in Crimea. [Электронный ресурс]: https://www.fitchsolutions.com/events/ world-worries-political-risks-2020-webinar (дата обращения 13.03.2021) 6 Атлас социально-политических проблем, угроз и рисков Юга России / под ред. МАТЕРИАЛЫ И МЕТОДЫ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ Авторская методика построения карты геополитических рисков была апробирована в ходе реализации проекта Российского фонда фундаментальных исследований «Пространственные модели и эффекты социокультурных процессов в Крыму в условиях интеграции региона в социально-экономическое пространство России».
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