중력모형을 활용한 우리나라 주요산업의 수출결정요인 비교 분석

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims to derive export determinants for each major industry in Korea using a gravity model, and through this, suggest factors affecting the competitiveness of each industry.
 Design/Methodology/Approach - Using a gravity model, this study used annual data from 1995 to 2022 and conducted a panel analysis on the top 10 major export destination countries of Korea. The industries to be analyzed were agricultural and fishery products, chemical industrial products, iron and metal products, machinery, and electronic products.
 Findings - As a result of analyzing Korea’s major export determinants by industry using a gravity model, it was found that the per capita GDP (PGDP), which can determine the income size of the other country, gross national income (GNI) of the other country, and the population of the trading partner (POP), which can determine the size of the economy, had a positive (+) effect on chemical industrial products and machinery, and the distance variable showed negative effects on all industries except machinery.
 Research Implications - The larger the income and economy of Korea’s major trading partners, the greater the impact on exports. However, it was analyzed that the conclusion of an FTA had a positive (+) effect on agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products and steel and metal products, and the economic growth rate of trading partners had a positive effect on machinery and electronic products. The analysis results suggest that there are differences in export determinants by major industry, which requires an approach of customized export strategies by industry.