МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЗОВНІШНЬОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ В АГРАРНОМУ СЕКТОРІ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The article considers the possibility of solving the problem of maximizing the profit from the sale of the leading products of plant origin in the agrarian market of cereals — wheat, corn and barley with EU countries. With the further determination of the optimal amount of national consumption, exports, and imports. At the heart of the article is the modernization of the optimization model, which was derived by M. L. Vdovin in the paper “Mathematical modeling in the management of export and import operations in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe”. To be precise, its adaptation to the agrarian sector of Ukraine. By optimizing the agrarian sector, it is possible to increase the competitiveness of agricultural production, which is extremely important, because the degree of development of the national economy depends to a certain extent on the ability to use the available resources of the country as efficiently as possible and allows for greater advantages in foreign trade operations that ensure the long-term economic growth of the national economy. The forecast is for 2018 and 2019, taking into account the tariff quotas received under the Association Agreement, which came into force in January 2016. Due to the novelty of these changes in politics, this statement of the problem is not sufficiently studied and therefore relevant to the present day. The bottom line is the improvement of the state of trade due to the fact that foreign economic activity is one of the main forms of economic relations of Ukraine with other states. Also, the average prices required for calculating the model for the realization of these products by the Holt method have been forecast, which will help to calculate the optimum amount of crops for further distribution between national consumption, export, and import The resulting model is flexible enough and can be adapted to any new changes in foreign trade.