Рождаемость и женская безработица в российских регионах

Abstract

This paper examines economic and demographic determinants of fertility, using panel data for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2021. Panel co-integration technique is used to find out whether there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and these determinants. We show that the growth of TFR is due largely to the growth of nuptiality rate, old age demographic burden, female wages, domestic labor migration and female unemployment rate, while the decline is associated with female economic activity and urbanization. In 2000–2011 the combined effect of stimulants prevailed over the combined effect of inhibitors, and TFR tended to grow. In 2011–2021 the negative impact of female economic activity and urbanization increased, and TFR began to decline. Pairwise Granger causality test shows that female unemployment, economic activity and urbanization cause fertility, but not vice versa, while causation is bidirectional in other cases. These results support some theoretical predictions and empirical evidence and contradict some others