Abstract
The economic potential of Ukraine’s trade industry for the period 2014-2020 is estimated based on the analysis of structural changes in the industry and economic potential of trade companies. Pre-war performance indicators show that the trade industry of Ukraine was one of the drivers of the economy. At the same time, the period of the beginning of the COVID restrictions led to the growth of not only e-commerce, but also trade in general. But Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, caused a great damage to both the Ukrainian economy in general and the trade industry in particular. The study reveals the consolidation of regional business trading companies and further specialization of small businesses. The drivers of the trade industry development are the growth of information and technical and technological potential of its companies. Accordingly, among the priority areas for capital investment in the industry are software, and obtaining patents, licenses and trademarks, both own and those obtained by partner companies. Assessment of the financial potential of companies in the trade sector reveals a tendency to move from long-term to short-term financing, which indicates increased business risks. The sources of the risks include the rising energy prices and instability of the foreign economic situation with constant changes in the regulation of the industry. Estimates of the economic potential of Ukraine’s trade industry are supplemented by an analysis of warehousing, which is a related industry for trade. As cases of destruction of warehouses during the current hostilities have shown, the development of warehousing is critical for the realization of the economic potential of trade. It was found that the warehousing industry shows uneven development by region. Based on the analysis, the author formulates a series of recommendations on the directions of economic policy for the post-war recovery of trade and warehousing.
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