Индия и Китай: игра с ненулевой суммой

Abstract

The article is devoted to studying the Indian attitude to the economic growth and increasing of political influence of China. The author analyzes the history of Sino-Indian relations, arguing that it is historical experience that determines the Indian attitude towards China. He notes the ambiguity of the historical experience: on the one hand, Indian and Chinese civilization have been coexisting side by side for at least two thousand years, and on the other, India has distrust of China after the 1962 war. This historical experience forms an ambiguous Indian position: India considers China as an eternal neighbour, but at the same both states claim to be the regional leader. The author considers three areas of clash of Indian-Chinese interests – South Asia and the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia and Africa. In the immediate neighborhood, India is unhappy with any intervention by China; in Southeast Asia, India and China are competing for influence, trying to strengthen their relations with ASEAN. In Africa, Indian and Chinese companies do not compete, but cooperate. The author comes to the conclusion that in all three zones, India is more or less tolerant of the growth of China’s economic presence, while taking very painfully any attempts at military and political expansion. India itself avoids actions that could lead to an aggravation of relations with China, preferring to increase economic influence and act with soft power and, if necessary, use its political and cultural influence to bring the pro-Indian politicians to power. The article also considers the evolution of the Indo-Pacific concept, which was conceived as a project to contain China, but is gradually turning into a historical and economic basis for expanding Indian influence to the east. The author concludes that India is committed to the format of ‘contest-and-cooperation’ and will refrain from participating in any anti-Chinese blocs as well as from an alliance with China in the near future.