승강기 리모델링을 위한 최적 시기에 관한 연구

Abstract

In 2016, there are 600,000 elevators installed in Korea. Of these, more than 30,000 elevators are newly installed or completely replaced each year because the percentage of old elevators exceeds 30%. However, the owner of the elevator often misses the optimal time due to the lack of expertise and data on how to replace or replace the old elevator. Also, the risk of safety accidents due to the aging of elevators is increased. Although the maintenance of the elevator is carried out monthly, the risk of a safety accident is increasing because the lowest cost is paid for troubleshooting and maintenance. For this reason, it is important to predict the life expectancy and replacement timing of the elevator, and to provide information so that the elevator can be replaced at the optimum time, in order to prevent accidents. Through the fault data of the elevator, Cumulative failure probability can be estimated by 'Kaplan-Meier' estimation method, 'Weibull' distribution analysis can be used to predict life expectancy. Age Replacement Method can determine the optimal time of economic life. The greater the preventive replacement rate, the less the risk of accidents and the longer the economic life span.