ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ НЕЧЕТКИХ ДАННЫХ В ЗАДАЧАХ ОЦЕНКИ ДОЛГОВЕЧНОСТИ

Abstract

The author considers the creation of a scientifically based loading unit which would take into account the possible modes of operation in the correct proportion, with due regard for variability and unclearness (fuzziness). It is due to the fact that the fatigue damage accumulates throughout the life of the machine and must be scientifically evaluated for an adequate assessment in the probabilistic aspect. Since the operation of some specific part is not precisely defined (and cannot be determined by the logic of random use of machines during exploitation), projections of random fuzzy distributions are considered. It worked out possible to scientifically take into account a finite set of operating modes in their reasonable proportion. Analyzing the loading of a critical performance part of the rolling stock served as example for construction of distributions and in particular for estimation of the part’s resource distribution. The results obtained on the basis of the developed method will allow assessing the risks of operation and predicting the required number of spare parts. Consideration of the censored sample elements in the construction of the fatigue curve will make the estimation of the parameters of the fatigue curve more consistent. The use of fuzzy sets can be very useful when considering the fatigue curve and when evaluating the durability variation. Examples of application of the proposed approach are shown.