비은행권 금융회사 대출의 가계연체율 결정요인에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic interrelationship between household overdue rate of the banking and the non-banking financial companies, the factors of the household’s ability to pay, and the factors of household’s equity capital. We set up the model based on the solvency hypothesis and the equity capital hypothesis to analyze the effect of household overdue rate in banking and non-banking sectors. We identified the dynamic effects between related variables through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis using the VAR model. The result of the analysis is as following. First, the household overdue rate in the banking sector was affected only by the previous one. Because the rate remains very low, the household default risk in the banking sector is very low. Second, the household overdue rate in the non-banking sector was more affected by household consumption than household income. Third, the household overdue rate in the non-banking sector was more affected by changes in house prices in metropolitan area than non-metropolitan area. Forth, the household overdue rate in the non-banking sector was more affected by changes in house prices in single-family house than apartment and multi-units house. According to these research results, it is necessary to stabilize the price control and reduce the burden of the financially vulnerable in terms of managing the risk of household overdue rate of non-banking companies. Furthermore, the government should strengthen integrative financial regulations of non-banking financial companies to manage potential household default risks.