Картографирование современных изменений климата на территории Урала

Abstract

The author describes the methods and results of current climate change mapping in the Ural region. The maps of temperature and water vapor pressure dynamics (for 1951–2010) and also precipitation amount changes (for 1966–2010) are presented. The maps of temperature and water vapor pressure are created basing upon spline interpolation of weather stations data, taking into account altitude-dependent regression. The altitude gradient of temperature and water vapor pressure was estimated using reanalysis data. The maps of precipitation amount were created basing upon spline interpolation combined with multiple linear regression model. Altitude and large-scale slope and aspect are used as independent variables. Accuracy assessment is carried out by cross-validation method. Basing upon the created maps, it is shown that the average annual temperature increased by 0,7–1,2° between 1951–1980 and 1981–2010 throughout the Ural region. In the North-Western Ural (i. e. in Komi Republic) the rise of average annual temperature is less significant, than in other parts of the mentioned area. The increase of water vapor pressure is also observed across the Urals. The changes of precipitation amount between 1966– 1995 and 1981–2010 are multidirectional. In general, the precipitation amount increased in the western part of Ural. At the same time, the precipitation amount decreased in some regions of Eastern Urals.