Десять років східному партнерству: час для перегляду.

Abstract

This paper analyses effectiveness and prospects of the Eastern Partnership in the context of its ten-year implementation and the results of the Brussels Summit in 2017. The article identified main problems that impede the use of its full potential for a deeper transformation of the EU’s eastern neighbourhood. These are: 1) internal challenges for the sustainable transformation of EaP countries; 2) Russia’s influence counterbalancing the EU’s Europeanisation influence in the region; 3) the weakness of the EU’s incentives to support domestic reforms in the partner countries. The basis of most of the problems that is hampering the reforms effectiveness is systemic corruption, selfish interests of the elites and ineffective state institutions of the partner countries. Many problems of the EaP partner states stem from the reluctance of the Russian Federation to respect their sovereignty and the attempt to preserve its “sphere of influence” in the post-Soviet space. However, the model of “integration without membership”, proposed by the EU within the EaP, does not have tools to stimulate truly deep reforms.The authors also formulated conclusions on the need for rethinking the Eastern Partnership. Firstly, the EU must recognise the political realities in the partner countries and, accordingly, adapt its expectations of reforms and policies towards governments and non-governmental forces. Secondly, a renewed approach to relations with partner countries should take into account their sensitivity to external pressure, namely “the pain points” that let them open to Russia’s influence, and to propose ways that would allow it to be minimised in the sense of building EU “soft power” and counteraction to the Kremlin’s “hard power”. Thirdly, the EU should think of what intermediate incentives it can offer its pro-European neighbours (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) in order to gradually make way for recognition of the status of potential candidates for membership if the internal transformations become irreversible.