Експертно-математична оцінка розвитку чорної металургії України

Abstract

The article considers the possibility of analyzing the current state and development prospects of the metallurgical industry through the use of a complex indicator of probability. It is shown that the assessment of the state and prospects of the development of metallurgical production is connected with the need to take into account many criteria that have different values and dimensions, since the very concept of the state and prospects is complex and characterized by a large number of private parameters. The use of expert evaluation and logical experiments based on expert evaluations using the data of experimental studies deserves special attention. To solve multi-criteria problems and optimize the operation of complex production systems, in particular, metallurgical production, the generalized Harrington desirability function was used and improved. To move from a dimensionless indicator of this function to an indicator in real cases, an indicator of the probability of an event is introduced. To analyze the state and forecast of the metallurgical industry, 24 parameters characterizing its work have been determined. Possible scenarios and stages of development of ferrous metallurgy were discussed, priority directions for the near, medium and long term were determined. The presented results show that in 2021 the state of Ukrainian ferrous metallurgy can be assessed as "satisfactory" and in 2022 as "very bad" due to the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. However, even in the conditions of martial law, the loss of 60% of metallurgical capacities, constant missile attacks and destroyed logistics, the industry continued to produce products as much as possible. The analysis showed that the post-war years will not be easy for metallurgists and by 2025 the state of the industry should be expected as "satisfactory". The state of MMC of Ukraine can reach the level of "good-very good" by 2050. The conducted theoretical studies allow us to draw a conclusion about the possibility and expediency of using Harrington's desirability function to solve the problem of assessing the achievement of the objectives of the development of the metallurgical industry.