Методология прогнозирования и стратегии управления социальными рисками

Abstract

The article deals with the problem of forecasting social risks. Before proceeding to the consideration of this issue, the author analyzes the concept of social risks, notes that there is no universal definition of social risks, identifies the main approaches to its interpretation, considers various factors contributing to the emergence of social risks and the main possible strategies for solving problems associated with the emergence of social risks. The article pays attention to the international experience of risk management. After that, the author proceeds to the consideration of the main methods of forecasting social risks, noting that the diversity of risks and factors that generate them implies the use of different methods. The diversity of methods is also due to the fact that social risks can arise at different levels of social reality, characterized by a different degree of complexity. In conclusion, the author states that the institutionalization of risk management activities indicates that modern societies are fully "risk societies".