美 바이든 행정부의 ‘對中정책’과 ‘北中관계’ 동학

Abstract

The Biden administration's policy toward China seems to presuppose military competition beyond diplomatic competition. The purpose of this paper is to predict what kind of “North Korea-China relations” will take when the “competition and conflict” between the US and China continues and deepens following the Trump administration. To this end, we will examine the past dynamics of North Korea-China relations, an asymmetric alliance, and examine what variables the North Korea-China alliance has changed.
 In conclusion, it can be said that North Korea-China relations have been most affected by 'China's relations with hegemony'. This paper will show that China has managed the North Korea-China alliance over the past 70 years, especially in the face of North Korea's six nuclear tests, mainly according to 'relationships with the hegemon of the time'. This is because the geopolitical value of North Korea, a weak ally of the asymmetric alliance, is largely proportional to the degree of 'conflict between China and the hegemon'. Therefore, if the 'competition and conflict' in the US-China relationship continues as it is now, China's 'alliance security dilemma' will increase, and it is highly likely that China will support the North Korean Kim Jong un regime and strengthen their alliance despite North Korea’s successive provocations.
 This can act as a difficulty in that the Yun Seok-yeol administration, which is supported by the right-wing conservatives, is increasingly demanding to strengthen the “US-South Korea-Japan” alliance, resulting in division of domestic public opinion and mutual pressure between China and the United States.