국면전환모형을 이용한 한미일 주택시장 경기국면에 관한 연구

Abstract

This paper is to model changes in business regime by using Korea, US and Japan apartment sale price indics with a two-state Markov regime switching model. As a result of the analysis, First, the rate of change in housing sales prices in each country showed a large difference according to the business cycles of housing sales prices, and even in the same regime, it was found that each country showed regional characteristics. Second, the mean growth rate of the expansion and contraction periods was different for each country, and the probability of maintaining the contractions period differed by country, but it was 2.5 times larger than that of the expansions period. Third, it was found that the variance of the error terms in Korea, US, and Japan was greater than the contraction period during the expansion period. It was found that the price volatility of each country was large during the expansion period, while the volatility was low during the contraction period. Therefore, it was estimated that the price volatility of housing as an asset was downward rigid. As the pace of information and communication is accelerating the coupling of the international real estate market, it is necessary to carry out housing policies that can stabilize the housing market by continuously monitoring domestic and foreign real estate business cycles.