Оцінка впливу фінансово-економічної кризи та пандемії COVID-19 на національний ринок праці

Abstract

The impact of quarantine restrictions during the global COVID-19 pandemic and the financial and economic crisis on the national labor market was explored in the article. Possible changes in the number of people employed in various sectors of the Ukrainian economy were determined on the basis of estimates of expected production volumes and subject to maintaining the achieved level of labor productivity in previous years. The characteristic was given to the negative trends of declining demand for personnel by industry, construction, services. Metallurgical production, mechanical engineering, electricity production, textile clothing production, production of consumer durables were attributed to the main types of industrial activity, where there are very negative trends in production. The expected amount of layoffs and growth in the number of unemployed was calculated for the crisis period of 2020-2021. The reduction of staff occurred in more than a third of enterprises in construction and services, which is taken into account in the calculations. Three temporal stages of overcoming the economic recession and overcoming the economic consequences of quarantine, which determine the content, nature and depth of social risks in the system of social and labor relations and in the field of employment, were proposed. The sequence of social risks associated with declining business activity, quarantine restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the intensification of the digitalization of the economy and society has been determined. The growth of social insecurity and insufficiency of livelihoods is expected at the first stage, the risks of unemployment persist, the risks of non-compliance of labor supply with educational and professional needs of the labor market, increased labor migration, increased partial and informal employment increase in the second stage; social risks due to the intensity of digitalization increase in the third stage.