국회의원 선거 결과의 공간 패턴 변화 분석: 19대 및 20대 국회의원 선거를 중심으로

Abstract

Election is one of important interests in geography because the members of National Assembly of Korea are elected mainly in spatial unit, which is called Election District. The purpose of this study is to understand the changing spatial pattern between the 19th and the 20th National Assembly Elections in South Korea. For this purpose, spatial statistical analysis was performed to explain the results of the elections in Eup-Myeon-Dong units through out the Capital Region and the study offers three primary findings. First, in general, the voting rate for ruling party decreased in both Local District Election and Proportional Representation Election, which comprise the National Assembly Election. However, considering only two main parties, the total vote rate of the ruling party, and the number and the vote rate in Eup-Myeon-Dong units where the percentage of votes for the ruling party is the highest, did not have significant change. Second, the results of the spatial cluster analysis indicated a strong pattern of spatial clustering in the Eup-Myeon-Dong units than that of election district units. Similarly, the proportional representation election outcomes showed a stronger spatial clustering than those in the local district election. Third, according to the results of bivariate spatial association analysis between two periods, 30% of Eup-Myeon-Dong units are found to adhere to the prior political inclination, while the regions with change in vote rate of the ruling party also showed a strong pattern of spatial clustering.