주택순환국면에 따른 주택가격 및 거래량 간의 인과성 분석

Abstract

It will be useful information to analyze using past housing market’s data can be predicted future direction. It will be very interesting information for market participants if the direction of prices and transaction volume can be predicted. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify the housing circulation phase by dividing it by period, focusing on the Seoul housing market, which is the center of price fluctuations in the current housing market, and to compare and analyze the correlation between housing prices and trading in each circulation phase. To analyze the correlation between the two variables, Granger causality test, vector autoregression model (VAR), and impulse response analysis were used. As a result of the study, the housing circulation phase is subdivided into four phases, and the direction of prices and transaction volume is analyzed differently for each phase. There is a positive correlation between price and trading and prices affect transaction volume in the short term, but the influence of transaction volume on prices is insignificant. However, it has been proven that one of the two variables has predictive power for the other. Although there is a limitation in that it is not possible to analyze the direct factors affecting the variables, it is believed that it can be used as useful information for housing participants and government policy officials.