위기 하의 호텔업의 기업실패와 기업부실위험 예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

According to previous studies, it has been studied that the survival of the hospitality business has nothing to do with the financial structure of the company, and mainly depends on geographic location or service. However, in the unprecedented situation with little profit due to the COVID-19, financial strength is necessarily required for hospitality businesses in order to pay fixed costs which is related to survival. This research analyzes the link between financial soundness and survival to explain the hotel industry’s risk due to the COVID-19 crisis, which can lead to a decline in the operating profit, and a similar type of global crisis. This study estimates operating leverage for each cost under the assumption that firms with a relatively high ratio of variable costs to fixed costs can adjust costs more flexibly in response to reduced operating activities, and predicts the failure of the hotel industry with the logit model. As a result, the logit prediction model including growth rate of operating income, capital adequacy ratio, cash-total cost ratio, operating leverage of intermediate input costs, operating leverage of operating expenses, total assets, and the location of the hotel best predicted the firm failure during the 2008 global financial crisis. As a result of predicting the firms that will face corporate failure among the hotel industry in 2021-2022, 24.87% of the observations, a total of 60 hotel businesses, are predicted to face corporate failure.