РАЗВИТИЕ ТЕОРИИ РИСКОВ И ПОРОГОВЫХ ЗНАЧЕНИЙ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

Abstract

The work’s purpose is to develop the theory of economic security risks and threshold values, considering these economic categories in interrelation. The authors examine key approaches to risk assessment and economic security threshold values formation and demonstrate relationship between classification characteristics of the two economic categories. Three main models of threshold values are considered. In a model containing two risk zones, threshold values serve as some reference points separating acceptable values of economic security indicators from unacceptable ones. The “traffic light” model is a more preferable one. It contains critical and target threshold levels and three risk zones. The third model, containing seven risk zones, corresponds to six conditional threshold levels, which leads to a more accurate assessment of the state of economic security of the objects under study compared to other models, and can be effectively used, for example, for classification purposes. The authors note that for monitoring threats to economic security, it is important not only to position the value of the economic security indicator in the corresponding risk zone, but also to analyze its changes over time, which makes it possible to compensate for system errors in determining the threshold values by studying the self-development of the system. They give examples of the use of volatility analysis and elasticity theory in the tasks of risk assessment, opening up new opportunities for economic security monitoring.