Проблема выявления источника (атрибуции) кибератак – фактор международной безопасности

Abstract

The work is devoted to the problem of attribution of cyberattacks as one of the top important issues on the global agenda of world politics. The subject of this research is targeted offensive computer attacks that perform state tasks. The authors have systematically analyzed the conceptual apparatus, classification features and general indicators, a set of problems related to identification of reliable sources of cyberattacks, as well as the features of targeted attacks and cybernetic groups supported by state actors. This allowed to conclude that the problem of attribution is emerging as a new scientific direction in the field of international information security. Based on the analysis of relevant studies of academic institutions and private companies, an attribution classification was proposed. It was utilized to review conceptual informal models of targeted computer attacks. The authors have analyzed issues of the applied methodological apparatus, which may affect the reliability of conclusions on imposing responsibility on the perpetrator of cyber-attack, while noting that there is a contradiction between the perception of the attribution results by various political blocs and unions. At the same moment, the USA and its allies are reported to pursue a policy of dominance in the field of attribution of targeted cyber-attacks. The paper proves the impact of modern breakthrough information technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on the security of cyberspace as well as the impact of the attribution problem on the level of international security and strategic stability. This issue includes a complex set of political, regulatory, organizational and technical tasks with a high degree of uncertainty, where political aspects are playing a central role. The conclusions are confirmed by the statistics of public reports of IT companies and publications of leading research institutes. The main scientific result of the work is formulation of the problem of divergence in the attribution of computer attacks between political blocs and alliances, which negatively affects international security. The authors propose topical measures to solve the problem of attribution of cyberattacks.