КОНЦЕПЦИЯ МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ КОМПРОМИССА МЕЖДУ ИНФЛЯЦИЕЙ И РОСТОМ

Abstract

The article describes a concept of a long-term macro-economic policy based on a compromise between economic growth and inflation that accompanies this growth. This concept differs from the existing theoretical approaches supported by monetary authorities in that it does not rely on the notion of Russia as a small open economy and it does not focus on price volatility as the number one problem in the long-term perspective. The theoretical framework usually used to address the relationship between economic growth and inflation is the Phillips curve and its modifications. In our study, this problem is connected to the phenomenon of non-neutrality of money in the long term. The analysis uses the simulation model of the shifting mode of reproduction (SMR model) and econometric methods. It is shown that a compromise between economic growth and inflation can be achieved if the long-term monetary policy results in the approximately equal rates of real GDP and inflation. Such monetary policy is possible to realize provided that some important macro-economic conditions are fulfilled, for example, the rouble undervaluation coefficient is reduced, the debt-to-gross-domestic- product ratio is increased, the ratio of international (foreign exchange) reserves to GDP is decreased, and the transition to a fiscal deficit policy is implemented. In other words, a systemic approach is required. This is not an easy way but it will ensure a growth in GDP rates and lower inflation.