쌀 가격의 유통단계별 인과성과 비대칭적 가격 전이 검정

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the asymmetric price transfer of rice under the assumption that the degree of price response in the production stage could be reduced or expanded without being constantly transferred to the wholesale or retail stage due to costs and processing occurring in the distribution process. we first analysis the causality of the wholesale price and retail price of rice, and determine the time lag in which the price of rice is transferred from the wholesale market to the retail market. In addition, we analyze asymmetric price transmission to determine whether the rice distribution market is inefficient. In the result, the time lag is estimated to be about 10 to 30 days. Furthermore, the analysis result shows that there is positive asymmetric price transmission in the wholesale-retail market. This result can be interpreted as a high probability of a retailer''s excess profit, meaning that changes in retail prices are more sensitive when wholesale prices increase than when the wholesale prices decreases. These results suggest that improvement of the rice distribution system needs to be approached not only at the production-wholesale stage but also at the retail-wholesale stage. In other words, if an efficient retail price is determined through strengthening monitoring system of retail prices, we can expect that the more efficient distribution structure in rice market.