Abstract
Climate change impact on urban drainage system are analyzed in Seoul by using high-resolution climate change scenario comparing 2000s (1971~2000) with 2020s (2011~2040), 2050s (2041~2070) and 2080s (2071~2100). The historical hourly observed rainfall data were collected from KMA and the climate change scenario-based hourly rainfall data were produced by RegCM3 and Sub-BATS scheme in this study. The spatial resolution obtained from dynamic downscaling was . The comparison of probability rainfalls between 2000s and 2080s showed that the change rates are ranged on 28~54%. In particular, the increase rates of probability rainfall were significant on 3, 6 and 24-hour rain durations. XP-SWMM model was used for analyzing the climate change impacts on urban drainage system. As the result, due to the increase of rainfall intensities, the inundated areas as a function of number of flooded manhole and overflow amounts were increasing rapidly for the 3 future periods in the selected Gongneung 1, Seocho 2, Sinrim 4 drainage systems. It can be concluded that the current drainage systems on the selected study area are vulnerable to climate change and require some reasonable climate change adaptation strategies.
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