유입·유출특성을 고려한 고속도로 연결로의 교통사고 심각도 예측모형

Abstract

PURPOSES: Because expressway ramps are very complex segments where diverse roadway design elements dynamically change within relatively short length, drivers on ramps are required to drive their cars carefully for safety. Especially, ramps on expressways are designed to guarantee driving at high speed so that the risk and severity of traffic accidents on expressway ramps may be higher and more deadly than other facilities on expressways. Safe deceleration maneuvers are required on off-ramps, whereas safe acceleration maneuvers are necessary on onramps. This difference in required maneuvers may contribute to dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents by ramp types. Therefore, this study was aimed at developing prediction models of the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps separately in order to consider dissimilar patterns and severity of traffic accidents according to types of ramps. METHODS: Four-year-long traffic accident data between 2007 and 2010 were utilized to distinguish contributing design elements in conjunction with AADT and ramp length. The prediction models were built using the negative binomial regression model consisting of the severity of traffic accident as a dependent variable and contributing design elements as in independent variables. RESULTS: The developed regression models were evaluated using the traffic accident data of the ramps which was not used in building the models by comparing actual and estimated severity of traffic accidents. Conclusively, the average prediction error rates of on-ramps and offramps were 30.5% and 30.8% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction models for the severity of traffic accidents on expressway on- and off-ramps will be useful in enhancing the safety on expressway ramps as well as developing design guidelines for expressway ramps.