장래 인구변화에 따른 초･중등학교 과밀학급 전망 분석

Abstract

As the classroom is not only a spatial concept in which learning activities are carried out together by teachers and students, but also a basic condition for professional educational activities of teachers, it is important to analyze overcrowded classes and establish policy directions for them. Accordingly, this study examined the changes in the school-age population and the current status of overcrowded classes in elementary and secondary schools, and projected the future overcrowded classes for elementary and secondary schools, and presented policy directions and implications related to overcrowded classes in the future. To this end, the school-age population provided by the National Statistics Office and the Ministry of Public Administration and Security was analyzed using the cohort factor method using basic data, and compared with the actual population changes in the area for major school districts where overcrowded classes occurred. As a result of the analysis, the number of students and the number of future classes is expected to gradually decrease due to the decrease in the school-age population, and the overcrowded class will continue to decline until 2036 except for 2025 according to this trend, and it will rebound from 2037 but decline again, and the overcrowded class in 2040 is expected to decrease by 65.2% compared to 2023. Based on these results, we proposed future policy recommendations related to overcrowded classrooms.