경과년수와 용적률의 상호작용을 고려한 아파트 가격 형성 분석

Abstract

A capital gain from housing reconstruction is determined by unit pre-sale price, unit construction cost, permitted floor area ratio, and developed floor area ratio. The higher the permitted floor area ratio and the lower the developed floor area ratio, the higher the potential gain from housing reconstruction. Thus, all other things being equal, expected gains from the reconstruction of apartments of lower developed floor area ratios will become larger, and the economic service life of the apartments will be shortened further. Although previous studies recognized the impact of the developed floor area ratio on the capital gain expected from reconstruction, they failed to empirically analyze that the economic service life of housing may vary depending on the levels of floor area ratios. Even in the case of apartments of the same age, if the developed floor area ratio approaches the permitted floor area ratio, it is likely that housing price is relatively low because project feasibility is lowered as there is little room for constructing housing for general pre-sale other than for the existing housing owner. Hence, this study analyzes the price of housing that has the latent expectation for the possibility of reconstruction, taking into account the interaction of age and floor area ratio. As a result of the analysis, it was found that if the developed floor area ratio gets higher, the expectation for the possibility of reconstruction happens later. Therefore, as for an area where the supply of apartments was concentrated at a specific period, or a large high-density apartment complex of comparatively poor location conditions, the problem may occur that when the housing becomes so superannuated that it requires reconstruction, the superannuation will last for a long time unless reconstruction project feasibility is guaranteed.