Новая математическая модель для прогнозирования численности населения России

M. Nosova

doi:10.33619/2414-2948/66/01

Abstract

In this article, a new original mathematical model for the Russian population projections as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of customers is built. The research of this system was carried out a virtual phase method and a modified method of asymptotic analysis and was proofed that the asymptotic distribution of applications served in the system at time t is Gaussian. Such a queuing system sufficiently and adequately simulates the process of changing the age structure of the population and can be used to analyze demographic situations in a single country and around the world. The mathematical model has been applied to the analysis of the population growth in Russia. We have built optimistic scenario for population projections to answer the question of how the Russian population will grow without immigration.

Highlights

Population projections are necessary for various administrative areas of state and regional development, for pension policy and public finance planning, for the design and implementation of immigration policies at the national level, for marketing research, and for insurance management
The actuality of this research is explained by the fact that the significant changing of the demographic situation in Russia is the result of serious social and economic transformations that have occurred in society over the past several decades
We show the results to the analysis of the population growth in Russia

Summary

Introduction

Population projections are necessary for various administrative areas of state and regional development, for pension policy and public finance planning, for the design and implementation of immigration policies at the national level, for marketing research, and for insurance management. В этой статье построена новая оригинальная математическая модель для прогнозирования численности населения России в виде автономной немарковской системы массового обслуживания с неограниченным количеством серверов и двумя типами заявок. An effective and modern method of research demographic processes and solve global problems of development is mathematical modeling.

Results

Conclusion