Теоретичні і прикладні аспекти прогнозування стану ґрунтового покриву

Abstract

Goal. To substantiate on the basis of generalization of the available experience theoretical aspects of forecasting changes in the state of soil cover and to develop models of forecasting changes in the basic physical, agrochemical, physicochemical properties of arable soils of Ukraine. Methods. Information-analytical, mathematical-statistical (correlation-regression, pedotransfer modeling). Results. Based on the analysis of literature sources, the relevance is proved of issues related to forecasting changes in the basic properties of arable soils of Ukraine to prevent the development of degradation processes and timely use of soil protection measures that will stabilize their fertility in modern conditions. The main methods of forecasting (expert, extrapolation, interpolation, etc.) are analyzed and the theoretical aspects of forecasting in soil science are substantiated. Using samples from the database «Soil Properties of Ukraine» they developed models for predicting changes in humus, physical, physicochemical, and agrochemical properties of arable soils. The main state priorities for technological measures to protect and stabilize the level of fertility of arable soils are proposed. Conclusions. It is established that with the preservation of the current level of relationships in the agrosphere, which is characterized by the development of degradation processes in conditions of existing deficit of essential nutrients, acidification and contamination of soils with radionuclides and heavy metals, forecasting changes in soil properties and biodiversity will remain negative. The main state priorities for technological measures to protect and stabilize the level of fertility of arable soils are outlined.