청보리 생산량의 기후요인 분석을 위한 베이지안 구조방정식 모형

Abstract

Whole Crop Barley (WCB) is a representative self-sufficient winter annual forage crop, along with Italian Ryegrass (IRG), in Korea. In this study, we examined the path relationship between WCB yield and climate factors such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration using a structural equation model. A Bayesian approach was considered to overcome the limitations of the small WCB sample size. As prior distribution of parameters in Bayesian method, standard normal distribution, the posterior result of structural equation model for WCB, and the posterior result of structural equation model for IRG (which is the most popular winter crop) were used. Also, Heywood case correction in prior distribution was considered to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters; in addition, the best prior to fit the characteristics of winter crops was identified. In our analysis, we found that the best prior was set by using the results of a structural equation model to IRG with Heywood case correction. This result can provide an alternative for research on forage crops that have hard to collect sample data.