Оценка и мониторинг геологического риска освоения угольных месторождений

Abstract

An approach to the quantitative assessment is considered for the geological risk of a decision-making on the development of a subsurface site based on the results of geological exploration, for the determination of the design solutions feasibility for the construction of a mining plant and for the annual mining development plans feasibility during the operation of the enterprise. The fundamentals of the geometric approach to the quantitative assessment of the confidence of geological indicators models, the use of which allows to avoid the problems arising during geostatistical methods applications in the conditions of coal deposits are set out. The confidence of the study of geological indicators is assessed by the degree of ambiguity of their geometrization results, which is quantified based on preliminary artificial creation of indirect redundant measurements in the exploration well grid. At the stage of coal mining, the evaluation of the significance of the geometrization results ambiguity is carried out with additional consideration of the constantly accumulated experience of mining operations in the mode of monitoring the confidence of resources. The possibility of design solutions implementation is assessed based on a pre-created alternative model of the geological indicator. Such a model is created by “distortion” of the traditional model using an additional negatively influenced indicator values which are in areas of the geometrization ambiguity. In the case the design solution can be successfully implemented in the conditions of the alternative model, the implementation impossibility risk is considered insignificant.