ФОРМУВАННЯ СИСТЕМИ ПОКАЗНИКІВ ДІАГНОСТУВАННЯ РИЗИКУ БАНКРУТСТВА ПІДПРИЄМСТВ МАШИНОБУДУВАННЯ

Abstract

The issues of failure risk diagnosing were actualized in Ukraine against the background of transformation processes in the economy. Enterprises are particularly vulnerable due to the forced reorientation to new markets and changes in permanent business relations. Therefore, it is now important to identify in insolvency problems and the risk of enterprises’ failure of this industry. The purpose of the research is to substantiate the method of selection and form a system of indicators that will provide diagnostics of the failure risk based on the financial statements of the company. The subject of the research is the Ukrainian machine-building enterprises and the process of forming a system of indicators, which will determine the failure risk of business entities. The methods of the research: methods of scientific knowledge, such as analysis and synthesis, induction, measurement, observation, formalization, logical and analytical techniques, as well as the methodological apparatus of financial analysis and mathematical statistics. The hypothesis of the research is the assumption that the process of selecting indicators based on the methods of mathematical statistics will avoid bias of other shortcomings that reduce the quality of enterprises’ failure diagnosing. The statement of basic materials. The existing models of failure diagnostics have serious shortcomings in terms of the approach to the selection of indicators and the number of classes, which the enterprise may belong to, depending on the existing risk of bankruptcy. Therefore, the authors proposed their own approach to the selection of diagnostically significant financial ratios based on the Student's t-test, the Mann-Whitney U-test and the correlation coefficient. A system of indicators of failure diagnosing has formed based on this approach. The originality and practical significance of the research is that a system of indicators is mathematically substantiated, what corresponds to the modern principles of evidence-based research and maximally emphasizes that the machine-building enterprise belongs to a particular failure risk class. Conclusions and perspectives of further research: the researchers are going to build a failure diagnostic model for Ukrainian machine-building enterprises based on the determined system of indicators.