Имитационное моделирование развития Ванино-Совгаванского мультимодального транспортного узла

Abstract

Purpose: Working-out of simulation model of multimodal transport node functioning to solve the problem of regional transport infrastructure development. Determination of the optimal ratio of technical and technological parameters of railway and sea port infrastructure, namely: technical parameters of MTN (Multimodal Transport Node) objects which determine their capacity in view of reliability of their functioning; processing time of applications (on cars, trains, ships, etc.) at each MTN object. Methods: Methodology for structural systems analysis, system theory, agent-based, discrete-event and system-dynamic modeling were applied. Results: Theoretical foundations for modeling methods are considered and the application of simulation modeling to solve the task of effective functioning of large transport systems in the conditions of uncertainty is substantiated. The simulation model of Vanino-Sovgavan multimodal transport node development was carried out to justify design decisions on change of MTN railway infrastructure oblique and capacity. The values of parameters at which the system can function smoothly in conditions of car traffic rise have been determined. Practical importance: The developed simulation model makes it possible to analyze the work of the key transport node of the Far East with the purpose of its effective and sustainable functioning. In addition, the model can be used to rationalize the work of existing transport nodes and to solve the issue of advanced development of a regional transport infrastructure, primarily, the Trans-Siberian and Baikal-Amur Mainlines, the Northern Sea Route, sea ports, border crossings and approaches to them in order to ensure production improvement for mining, processing and transportation of natural resources and realization of transit potential of Siberia, the Far East and the Arctic zone of Russia.