Современные и сценарные изменения стока Волги и Дона

Abstract

Outputs of studies of current and scenario changes of the river runoff in the Volga and the Don basins probable in the current century first third part under influence of the global climate change and social/economic transformations are presented. Long-term phases of low and high annual and seasonal runoff of the Volga and the Don over the period from late XIX and early XXI centuries and the human factors’ influence on them have been found. Their duration varies in the wide range reaching eighty years and more. Noticeable runoff changes are characteristic for contrast phases. Integral scenario assessment of the river runoff changes on the basis of various climatic scenarios and water consumption has been given. Rather wide range of the probable runoff changes in comparison with the current situation has been obtained on the basis of scenarios of social/economic development and specific water use changes. Expected increase of the Volga water content under the influence of climatic factors will facilitate improvement of the water/economic situation at this river, while there is no chance to expect water content in the Don. At the same time there is a probability that the current phase of climate worming is going to come to an end and to be replaced by the long-term cold phase and this might cause the corresponding hydrological changes.