МЕТОД СНИЖЕНИЯ РИСКОВ В СЕЛЬСКОМ ХОЗЯЙСТВЕ ВСЛЕДСТВИЕ ГРАДОБИТИЙ

Abstract

The key problems of ensuring the conditions for the development of society are now becoming theadaptation of various fields of activity to climate change and the reduction of risks associated with dangerousweather events. The article discusses possible approaches to reducing the risks in agricultureassociated with hail damage, touches upon the features of their information support. One method forsolving this problem and a model for its implementation, developed in the framework of decision theory,are proposed. The method for solving the problem is classified by us as "passive" methods, which do notimply interference in the processes of formation of hail precipitation in clouds. As a risk mitigationmechanism, the proposed method uses the fact that the vulnerability of crops to hail is different for differentcrops. Accordingly, risk management is carried out by selecting the structure of agricultural production,taking into account the peculiarities of their vulnerability to this weather event, as well as theconditions imposed on the volume of agricultural production. The article discusses the main tasks thatarise in the way of the practical use of this method. To analyze the effectiveness of the method for theproduction and economic conditions of the steppe climatic zone of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic,model calculations were carried out. At the same time, to determine the possible states of hail processes,the frequency of hail fall (the number of days with hail in the territory under consideration per year) wasused. Using the time series of this indicator for the period 1958-2018, the frequency of hail in the consideredclimatic zone was presented as a discrete random variable with a known distribution law. Thismade it possible to consider the problem of reducing losses in agriculture as a problem of decision making under risk. The results of model calculations showed the high efficiency of the method for reducingthe losses of agriculture from hail damage. An important advantage of the method is that its practicaluse will be associated with insignificant costs