Методологические основы прогнозирования распространения заболеваний в мире (обзор)

Abstract

In modern conditions, the prediction of the morbidity of the population is becoming one of the most urgent tasks of public health worldwide. For state and international health services, with the help of forecasting the possible incidence and prevalence of various diseases in the general population, it becomes necessary to improve the system of providing specialized care due to the possibility of an updated calculation of the necessary resources. Purpose of the study is to analyze the methodological basis for predicting the morbidity of the population based on the study and generalization of literary sources. Materials and methods. The materials for the analysis were scientific publications on the issues of forecasting and modeling of morbidity in various subgroups of the population and territories of the Russian Federation and other countries. In the course of the research, such methods as comparative analysis, study and generalization of experience, bibliographic were used. Results. Currently, there are a number of studies devoted to disease prediction, and the number of methodological approaches to predicting possible changes in the epidemiological situation in various territories is growing. The study provides an overview of existing methodological approaches to predicting the morbidity of the population in Russia and in the world community. Findings. Thus, the analysis of the experience of predicting morbidity made it possible to determine the features of the use of certain mixed methods of forecasting different classes, groups and types of diseases, especially when identifying new viruses and infectious diseases.